Introduction
For some time, I’ve noticed that we are not learning from history. Not because knowledge is unavailable, but because we spend more time being educated by strangers on social media—people chasing their promotion, likes, and followers.
And in that endless flow of content, I recently saw the most telling sign of where society
is heading.
During my recent trip, I spent hours in the airport observing people around me. It would be an understatement to say that 95 percent of travellers were glued to their screens—mesmerized by influencers, comedians, and self-proclaimed experts—while no one was watching their luggage, their food, or even the bags at their feet.
We are entertained and informed by unknown individuals who carry no responsibility, and then suddenly my attention was caught by the person seated next to me. On his phone, he typed into Google, “How to avoid being investigated for an insurance claim.”
I wasn’t surprised. I’ve been in war zones, in interrogation rooms, and in corporate boardrooms investigating misconduct. If history has taught me anything, it is this: desperation gives people courage they never knew they had. Today, that courage is increasingly manifesting itself in insurance fraud.
A silent crisis growing in plain sight
Australia is confronting a subtle but significant rise in fraudulent insurance behaviour—driven not by criminal masterminds, but by ordinary people struggling under economic pressure.
The Australian Institute of Criminology (AIC) has warned for years that financial stress lowers ethical barriers and increases the likelihood of insurance fraud. Their findings show that during economic downturns, individuals begin to reinterpret fraud not as a crime, but as a “necessary act” or a harmless shortcut.
The FRISS Global Insurance Fraud Report draws a similar conclusion: cost-of-living pressures directly correlate with a rise in opportunistic fraud, inflated claims, falsified application details, staged incidents, and other forms of deception.
This is not a theoretical risk. It is happening every day—often quietly, often unknowingly.
When survival replaces morality
Historically, insurance fraud has been associated with greed—lavish lifestyles, opportunistic repairers, and organized crime syndicates. But today’s fraud profile is different. The fastest-growing category is opportunistic fraud, committed by people who otherwise consider themselves honest.
Financial stress becomes the gateway.
- A dent becomes a full bumper replacement.
- A stolen item is upgraded in value.
- An accident claim includes “a few additional details” that never happened.
- A car said to be garaged is parked on the street.
These are not seeking wealth. They’re seeking relief.
They rationalize the act as harmless.
“Insurers have plenty of money.”
“I pay my premiums, so this is my right.”
“No one gets hurt.”
But someone always does.
The pressure cooker of the modern economy
The current economic environment creates the perfect storm. Cost-of-living pressure has reached a point where many households are one unexpected bill away from financial crisis.
Inflation, rising rents, higher fuel costs, energy prices, stagnant wages, and increased debt loads have created conditions that criminologists recognize as high-risk for dishonest claims.
In times like these, people look for what I call “relief valves”—small openings in the system where they believe they can balance their budget, even if it means bending the rules. Insurance becomes one of those valves because it is built on trust and self-reporting.
The temptation to exploit that trust becomes stronger when the alternative feels like
financial ruin.
In intelligence work, I observed this psychological progression countless times. When a person begins to justify a questionable act, the next steps become procedure, not morality.
Fraud is evolving- Rapidly and Publicly
The most alarming trend is how fraud has shifted from private misconduct to
public education.
Social media platforms host unfiltered advice on how to “maximize” insurance claims, avoid detection, or manipulate policy wording. What once required criminal knowledge is now a TikTok tutorial.
The AIC report emphasizes that opportunistic offenders are increasingly influenced by what they see online. FRISS reinforces this, showing that online content directly shapes
fraud attempts.
Today’s offender is not a mastermind. They are simply following instructions.
The new fraud landscape: swift, simple, and
socially normalized
Fraud now spans several categories:
1. Exaggerated or inflated claims
The most common form, where real damage is overstated to recover more money.
AIC findings identify this as the primary driver of rising fraud losses.
2. Application misrepresentation
People falsify information to secure cheaper premiums:
- incorrect parking locations
- understated driving history
- manipulating business turnover
FRISS reports this as rising sharply across Australia.
3. Staged incidents (“crash-for-cash”)
Once the domain of organized crime, now increasingly copied by everyday drivers in financial trouble.
4. Arson-for-profit
Small businesses struggling with debt or declining revenue sometimes turn to deliberate fires to recoup losses. AIC reports link economic downturns to spikes in suspicious fires.
5. Ghost broking and fake policies
Desperate individuals purchase low-cost “policies” online from unlicensed brokers, only to discover too late they were never insured.
When hardship becomes severe enough, people adopt behaviours that once
shocked them.
Organized crime amplifies the chaos.
Economic downturns do not just tempt individuals—they energize criminal networks. FRISS highlights that organized groups intentionally increase activity during recessions because insurers are under pressure and claim volumes rise.
This creates opportunities for:
- staged accidents
- coordinated medical fraud
- inflated repair schemes
- digital policy forgeries
These groups thrive when the public is distracted and desperate.
From my investigative experience, organized criminals rarely create problems—they exploit them. Economic stress is the perfect climate for that exploitation.
The hidden cost: Everyone Pays
Insurance fraud is not a victimless crime. It is a collective burden.
According to AIC and industry data, undetected and detected fraud in Australia costs billions each year. The consequences fall not on insurers, but on the community:
- Higher premiums for honest policyholders
- Slower claim processing
- More invasive investigations
- Reduced trust between insurers and customers
- Less flexibility for genuine victims
When many people decide to “just add a little extra,” the whole system shifts.
Why we must pay attention now
The most dangerous aspect of modern fraud is not the act itself, but the culture forming around it.
A culture where online influencers teach fraud like a skill.
A culture where people see fake content as genuine education.
A culture where desperation pushes ordinary people into criminal thinking.
This is where history matters.
In my earlier life—war, intelligence, interrogations—I saw how quickly morality collapses when people face survival pressure. The modern economy is not a war zone, but the psychological patterns are disturbingly similar.
Conclusion: The line between honesty and criminality is thinner than ever
As cost-of-living pressure continues and misinformation spreads online, insurance fraud will keep rising—not because people are evil, but because people are struggling, misinformed, and encouraged by digital voices who carry no responsibility.
Desperation does not make someone a criminal.
But the choices they make in desperation can.
If we want to learn from history, we must recognize the signs repeating themselves today: pressure, rationalization, and opportunity converging into a perfect storm of
fraudulent behaviour.
This is not a problem for insurers alone.
It is now a problem for all of us.