Lessons From War, Diplomacy, and Business
n the trenches of the infantry, I learned that assumption is the mother of all failure. In the calm spaces of diplomacy, I learned something almost as important: the big smilers are the big killers.
Trust is an opening, but verification is the golden rule. In today’s cut-throat world of business, I abide by a rule: there is no real profit to be made, only losses to be managed. None of this is motivational speaking.
These are the scars of real life. A new frontier lies ahead of us.
The “Moscow Rules”, first used by CIA officers operating in hostile Soviet territories, have unexpectedly become relevant in the modern world of cryptocurrency. These rules were born in environments where surveillance was constant and mistakes were unforgiving.
Today, they apply to another unpredictable environment: the cryptocurrency ecosystem.
The Digital Iron Curtain
The era of cryptocurrency has created what could be described as a Digital Iron Curtain.
In this space, surveillance is constant and anonymity is often an illusion. Disorder is a defining feature of the ecosystem, and investors are increasingly forced to operate as if they are inside a hostile environment.
A modern interpretation of the Moscow Rules has quietly emerged among those who have learned the hard lessons of this frontier.
Freedom Comes with Responsibility
The pain of losing everything in crypto is not theoretical.
Investors have experienced devastating losses. Developers have watched protocols collapse under exploitation. Security researchers understand that in crypto, mistakes are permanent.
Cryptocurrency promises freedom from traditional financial institutions, intermediaries, and banks. Millions of people are attracted by the possibility of controlling their own financial destiny.
But freedom has a cost.
If your private keys are stolen, there is no customer service to call.
If your wallet is compromised, there is no fraud department to intervene.
If assets move on the blockchain, the transaction cannot simply be reversed.
Because of this reality, the crypto community has gradually adopted an operational mindset: assume the environment is hostile.
The Winning Crypto Battle
The early days of Bitcoin and blockchain technology felt like a digital gold rush.
Advocates spoke of decentralisation, financial sovereignty, and technological revolution. For many, cryptocurrency represented liberation from traditional banking systems.
But history teaches us that every gold rush eventually attracts predators.
Today’s frontier has become a breeding ground for:
Well-organised cybercriminal syndicates
Nation-state sponsored hacking groups
Complex phishing networks
Professional con artists operating behind slick websites
According to the Chainalysis Crypto Crime Report, cryptocurrency worth more than $3.7 billion was stolen in 2022, with most of the losses linked to phishing attacks, social engineering, and fraudulent schemes rather than technical vulnerabilities (Chainalysis, 2023).
The collapse of the FTX exchange in 2022 further demonstrated how fragile systems and governance structures can be. Billions of dollars in investor funds were lost, reminding the world that the crypto frontier has become far more dangerous than many initially believed.
The Digital Bubble
The FTX collapse highlighted why financial systems require strong fail-safes.
In the military, we speak about situational awareness. A soldier is trained not only to see what is present, but to recognise what might be missing.
In the crypto world, this concept can be described as a digital bubble.
When you handle your seed phrase—the master key to your assets—or execute a transaction, you are operating within that bubble. Inside the bubble, you believe you are in control.
But outside the bubble, someone may be actively trying to breach it.
One incorrect click.
One phishing message.
One “helpful” stranger in your direct messages.
That is often enough to lose everything.
This is not simply a technological battlefield.
It is a psychological battlefield.
The Intelligence Paradox
What makes the crypto environment so dangerous?
The answer lies in the remarkable counter-intelligence capabilities of bad actors.
Blockchain technology makes transactions transparent. Wallet movements can be tracked and analysed. Specialised tools allow attackers to identify profitable targets.
Your digital footprint can quickly become a target marker.
Ironically, the transparency that makes blockchain revolutionary also makes it attractive to criminals.
Over time, the crypto community has developed its own survival wisdom through shared losses, security breaches, and conversations across forums and encrypted messaging platforms.
From this collective experience, a modern adaptation of the Moscow Rules has emerged.
The Crypto Moscow Rules
1. Don’t Assume Anything
Original Intent: In Cold War Moscow, assuming a street was safe or a contact was trustworthy could be fatal.
Crypto Application: Never assume a token is legitimate or a smart contract is safe. Verify the contract code, the team’s background, and any available security audits.
2. Trust Your Gut
Original Intent: An intelligence officer’s instinct often detected danger before the mind could explain it.
Crypto Application: If a project feels suspicious, investigate further. Many victims of scams admit they ignored their instincts.
3. Everyone Might Be Working for the Other Side
Original Intent: Anyone in Soviet Moscow could be an informant.
Crypto Application: Online identities are easily manipulated. Influencers may promote tokens for financial incentives, and compromised accounts can distribute malicious links.
Healthy scepticism is not paranoia. It is operational discipline.
4. Don’t Look Back — You Are Not Alone
Original Intent: Constantly looking over your shoulder signals suspicion.
Crypto Application: Blockchain transactions are permanent and publicly visible. Learn from mistakes, but avoid emotional attachment to past decisions.
5. Blend In and Disappear
Original Intent: An intelligence officer must blend into the environment.
Crypto Application: Avoid publicly sharing your trading activity or holdings. Visible success can make you a target.
6. Stay Within Your Identity but Change Your Routine
Original Intent: Predictable routines allow surveillance to track you easily.
Crypto Application: Use hardware wallets, strong passwords, and multi-factor authentication. Vary your operational security practices to reduce predictability.
7. Lull Them into a Sense of Self-Satisfaction
Original Intent: Appearing harmless can reduce enemy vigilance.
Crypto Application: Quiet investors attract less attention. Discretion can be an effective security strategy.
8. Do Not Disturb the Opposite Party
Original Intent: Provoking an adversary invites retaliation.
Crypto Application: Avoid unnecessary confrontations online. Hostile debates can attract malicious actors or expose vulnerabilities.
9. Select the Right Moment for Action
Original Intent: Intelligence operations depend on precise timing.
Crypto Application: Market conditions, network congestion, and transaction fees all influence outcomes. Rushed decisions often lead to costly mistakes.
10. Don’t Burn Your Bridges
Original Intent: An intelligence officer always needed multiple escape routes.
Crypto Application: Diversify assets, store funds across multiple wallets, and avoid dependence on a single exchange or platform.
A Necessary Counterargument
Critics may argue that financial fraud is not unique to cryptocurrency.
They would be correct.
Financial markets have witnessed major scandals long before the emergence of blockchain—from Enron’s corporate fraud to Bernie Madoff’s Ponzi scheme.
However, cryptocurrency introduces several unique vulnerabilities:
- No chargeback capability
- Unpredictable regulatory jurisdictions
- Potential anonymity of participants
- Limited cross-border enforcement mechanisms
These conditions make errors permanent and often irreversible.
A Legacy
The Moscow Rules are not simply relics of the Cold War.
They represent a mindset of survival in environments defined by uncertainty, deception, and asymmetric power.
Microfilm and dead drops have been replaced by blockchains and algorithms. Yet the pace of technological progress far exceeds the evolution of human nature.
In the world of digital currencies and unseen code, success will not belong only to those with advanced algorithms.
It will belong to those with discipline, caution, and strategic awareness.
The landscape will continue to change.
But one lesson remains timeless.
Among the first rules intelligence officers learn is simple:
assume nothing.